Phillies at Braves
Last play · Alec Bohm lines out to first baseman Dominic Smith.
Win probability
Braves100%
PHI 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 1 – 8 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mauricio Dubón singles on a ground ball to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Ozzie Albies scores. Michael Harris II scores. (inning 4) — +22% Braves
8Michael Harris II homers (25) on a fly ball to right field. DaShawn Keirsey Jr. scores. Ozzie Albies scores.2–12
8Justin Crawford homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.2–9
6Ozzie Albies out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Justin Crawford. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores.1–9
4Ronald Acuña Jr. singles on a line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. Drake Baldwin scores.1–8
4Drake Baldwin doubles (18) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Bryce Harper. Sean Murphy scores. Ha-Seong Kim scores.1–7
4Sean Murphy reaches on a fielding error by third baseman Bryson Stott. Mauricio Dubón scores. Austin Riley to 3rd.1–4
4Mauricio Dubón singles on a ground ball to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Ozzie Albies scores. Michael Harris II scores.1–3
4Ronald Acuña Jr. homers (17) on a fly ball to left field.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
