Rangers at Orioles
Last play · Gunnar Henderson grounds out, second baseman Josh Smith to first baseman Jake Burger.
Win probability
Orioles0%
TEX 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 3 – 3 BAL
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Orioles favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gunnar Henderson doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Evan Carter. Blaze Alexander scores. Taylor Ward scores. (inning 5) — +29% Orioles
9Taylor Ward doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Evan Carter. Tyler O'Neill scores. Colton Cowser scores.8–5
9Corey Seager homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.8–3
7Danny Jansen homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Corey Seager scores. Jake Burger scores.7–3
6Brandon Nimmo singles on a line drive to center fielder Colton Cowser. Evan Carter scores.4–3
5Gunnar Henderson doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Evan Carter. Blaze Alexander scores. Taylor Ward scores.3–3
5Corey Seager singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Colton Cowser. Wyatt Langford scores.3–1
5Wyatt Langford triples (1) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Brandon Nimmo scores.2–1
4Pete Alonso homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
