Giants at Orioles
Last play · Jared Oliva lines out to center fielder Leody Taveras.
Win probability
Orioles100%
SF 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 1 – 4 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Orioles favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Alonso doubles (3) on a line drive to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Gunnar Henderson scores. Taylor Ward scores. (inning 5) — +18% Orioles
9Casey Schmitt homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.2–6
7Colton Cowser singles on a soft ground ball to shortstop Willy Adames. Taylor Ward scores. Pete Alonso to 3rd. Johnathan Rodríguez to 2nd.1–6
6Coby Mayo singles on a fly ball to center fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Leody Taveras scores.1–5
5Pete Alonso doubles (3) on a line drive to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Gunnar Henderson scores. Taylor Ward scores.1–4
5Daniel Susac singles on a ground ball to center fielder Leody Taveras. Casey Schmitt scores.1–2
1Samuel Basallo homers (2) on a line drive to left center field. Pete Alonso scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
