Giants at Orioles
Last play · Adley Rutschman pops out to shortstop Willy Adames.
Win probability
Orioles0%
SF 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 3 – 1 BAL
Giants led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -132
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Orioles favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Willy Adames homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 3) — -14% Giants
9Gunnar Henderson homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Jeremiah Jackson scores.6–3
7Jung Hoo Lee homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Casey Schmitt scores.6–1
7Casey Schmitt doubles (5) on a line drive to left fielder Taylor Ward. Matt Chapman scores.4–1
4Leody Taveras doubles (2) on a ground ball to right fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Dylan Beavers scores.3–1
4Willy Adames doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Taylor Ward. Heliot Ramos scores. Patrick Bailey to 3rd.3–0
4Heliot Ramos singles on a line drive to right fielder Dylan Beavers. Casey Schmitt scores.2–0
3Willy Adames homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
