D-backs at Orioles
AZ7–
BAL9Last play · Ketel Marte grounds out, third baseman Blaze Alexander to first baseman Pete Alonso.
Win probability
Orioles100%
AZ 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 4 – 1 BAL
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Alonso homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Taylor Ward scores. (inning 7) — +44% Orioles
8Jeremiah Jackson homers (3) on a fly ball to center field.7–9
7Pete Alonso homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Taylor Ward scores.7–8
6Jeremiah Jackson hits a grand slam (2) to left field. Dylan Beavers scores. Leody Taveras scores. Colton Cowser scores.7–6
6Leody Taveras singles on a fly ball to left fielder Jorge Barrosa. Pete Alonso scores. Dylan Beavers to 2nd.7–2
6Nolan Arenado homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. Adrian Del Castillo scores. Ildemaro Vargas scores.7–1
4Nolan Arenado homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Jose Fernandez scores.4–1
3Gunnar Henderson triples (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Alek Thomas. Blaze Alexander scores.2–1
3Ketel Marte homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.