D-backs at Orioles
Last play · Jeremiah Jackson pops out to second baseman Ildemaro Vargas.
Win probability
Orioles0%
AZ 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 3 – 4 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -143
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Adrian Del Castillo homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Corbin Carroll scores. (inning 10) — -44% D-backs
10Nolan Arenado singles on a line drive to center fielder Blaze Alexander. Ildemaro Vargas scores.8–5
10Adrian Del Castillo homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Corbin Carroll scores.7–5
7Leody Taveras singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jorge Barrosa. Gunnar Henderson scores.5–5
7Adrian Del Castillo grounds out, pitcher Grant Wolfram to shortstop Gunnar Henderson to first baseman Pete Alonso. Ketel Marte scores. Corbin Carroll to 3rd.5–4
6Alek Thomas grounds out softly to first baseman Pete Alonso. Jose Fernandez scores. Nolan Arenado to 2nd.4–4
5Jeremiah Jackson homers (4) on a line drive to left center field. Weston Wilson scores.3–4
4Jorge Barrosa doubles (7) on a line drive to right fielder Johnathan Rodríguez. Alek Thomas scores.3–2
3Jeremiah Jackson singles on a line drive to left fielder Jorge Barrosa. Pete Alonso scores. Johnathan Rodríguez to 2nd.2–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
