Red Sox at Orioles
Last play · Jarren Duran pops out to third baseman Coby Mayo.
Win probability
Orioles100%
BOS 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 2 – 9 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Adley Rutschman homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Taylor Ward scores. (inning 1) — +16% Orioles
7Adley Rutschman singles on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Gunnar Henderson scores. Taylor Ward to 2nd.3–10
6Marcelo Mayer doubles (6) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Dylan Beavers. Wilyer Abreu scores.3–9
5Coby Mayo homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.2–9
5Ceddanne Rafaela grounds into a force out, shortstop Gunnar Henderson to second baseman Jeremiah Jackson. Caleb Durbin scores. Carlos Narváez out at 2nd. Ceddanne Rafaela to 1st.2–8
4Adley Rutschman homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Taylor Ward scores.1–8
3Samuel Basallo homers (4) on a line drive to right center field.1–6
2Adley Rutschman grounds into a force out, third baseman Caleb Durbin to shortstop Trevor Story. Gunnar Henderson scores. Taylor Ward out at 2nd. Adley Rutschman to 1st.1–5
2Wilyer Abreu homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.1–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
