D-backs at Orioles
Last play · Taylor Ward grounds out, pitcher Paul Sewald to first baseman Luken Baker.
Win probability
Orioles0%
AZ 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 4 – 2 BAL
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+141 / -171
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Orioles favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ildemaro Vargas homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. James McCann scores. Jorge Barrosa scores. (inning 5) — -41% D-backs
8Leody Taveras singles on a line drive to center fielder Jorge Barrosa. Pete Alonso scores. Dylan Beavers to 2nd.4–3
5Jose Fernandez doubles (2) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Leody Taveras. Geraldo Perdomo scores.4–2
5Ildemaro Vargas homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. James McCann scores. Jorge Barrosa scores.3–2
3Leody Taveras walks. Taylor Ward scores. Pete Alonso to 3rd. Samuel Basallo to 2nd.0–2
2Samuel Basallo homers (3) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
