Red Sox at Orioles
Last play · Samuel Basallo strikes out swinging, catcher Connor Wong to first baseman Willson Contreras.
Win probability
Orioles0%
BOS 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 3 – 1 BAL
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -143
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Willson Contreras homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Jarren Duran scores. (inning 5) — -21% Red Sox
8Gunnar Henderson singles on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Colton Cowser scores.5–3
6Gunnar Henderson homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field.5–2
6Marcelo Mayer singles on a soft ground ball to left fielder Taylor Ward. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.5–1
6Ceddanne Rafaela triples (2) on a line drive to center fielder Dylan Beavers. Wilyer Abreu scores.4–1
5Samuel Basallo homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.3–1
5Willson Contreras homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Jarren Duran scores.3–0
5Andruw Monasterio singles on a ground ball to center fielder Dylan Beavers. Caleb Durbin scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
