Red Sox at Orioles
Last play · Leody Taveras flies out to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela.
Win probability
Orioles0%
BOS 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 7 – 0 BAL
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 8 ↓
fair over 52.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+103 / -124
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Caleb Durbin doubles (6) on a line drive to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Andruw Monasterio scores. (inning 2) — -15% Red Sox
9Willson Contreras homers (5) on a fly ball to center field. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.17–1
9Caleb Durbin homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Jarren Duran scores.14–1
9Andruw Monasterio hits a grand slam (1) to center field. Willson Contreras scores. Wilyer Abreu scores. Trevor Story scores.12–1
9Willson Contreras singles on a line drive to left fielder Colton Cowser. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.8–1
7Leody Taveras grounds out to first baseman Willson Contreras. Tyler O'Neill scores. Jeremiah Jackson to 3rd.7–1
5Connor Wong doubles (5) on a fly ball to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Trevor Story scores. Andruw Monasterio scores. Caleb Durbin scores.7–0
4Willson Contreras out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Blaze Alexander. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores.4–0
2Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Blaze Alexander. Connor Wong scores. Isiah Kiner-Falefa to 2nd.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
