Astros at Orioles
HOU3–
BAL5Last play · Jose Altuve bunt grounds out softly, third baseman Blaze Alexander to first baseman Pete Alonso.
Win probability
Orioles100%
HOU 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 1 – 4 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Alonso homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Taylor Ward scores. (inning 5) — +18% Orioles
8Brice Matthews singles on a line drive to right fielder Dylan Beavers. Dustin Harris scores.3–5
8Dustin Harris triples (1) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Dylan Beavers. Christian Walker scores.2–5
7Adley Rutschman singles on a line drive to center fielder Brice Matthews. Gunnar Henderson scores.1–5
5Pete Alonso homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Taylor Ward scores.1–4
5Brice Matthews homers (2) on a line drive to right center field.1–2
1Samuel Basallo doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. Adley Rutschman scores.0–2
1Adley Rutschman singles on a line drive to left fielder Dustin Harris. Gunnar Henderson scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.