Astros at Orioles
Last play · Shay Whitcomb flies out to center fielder Colton Cowser.
Win probability
Orioles100%
HOU 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 0 – 5 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Adley Rutschman hits a grand slam (4) to left center field. Blaze Alexander scores. Gunnar Henderson scores. Taylor Ward scores. (inning 5) — +22% Orioles
8Brice Matthews singles on a ground ball to center fielder Colton Cowser, deflected by shortstop Blaze Alexander. Jose Altuve scores. Yainer Diaz to 2nd.3–10
8Yainer Diaz singles on a line drive to center fielder Colton Cowser. Isaac Paredes scores. Jose Altuve to 3rd.2–10
7Jeremiah Jackson hits a grand slam (6) to left center field. Adley Rutschman scores. Pete Alonso scores. Dylan Beavers scores.1–10
7Dylan Beavers walks. Taylor Ward scores. Adley Rutschman to 3rd. Pete Alonso to 2nd.1–6
7Christian Vázquez singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Colton Cowser. Brice Matthews scores. Dustin Harris to 2nd.1–5
5Adley Rutschman hits a grand slam (4) to left center field. Blaze Alexander scores. Gunnar Henderson scores. Taylor Ward scores.0–5
4Jeremiah Jackson doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Yordan Alvarez. Pete Alonso scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
