Athletics at Orioles
Last play · Jeremiah Jackson strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Orioles0%
ATH 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 3 – 1 BAL
Athletics led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+117 / -141
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Kurtz triples (1) on a ground ball to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Lawrence Butler scores. Zack Gelof scores. (inning 5) — -28% Athletics
9Samuel Basallo singles on a ground ball to center fielder Zack Gelof. Adley Rutschman scores.4–3
8Jacob Wilson singles on a ground ball to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Tyler Soderstrom scores. Brent Rooker to 3rd.4–2
6Adley Rutschman homers (5) on a fly ball to center field.3–2
5Nick Kurtz triples (1) on a ground ball to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Lawrence Butler scores. Zack Gelof scores.3–1
5Zack Gelof singles on a ground ball to left fielder Taylor Ward. Jacob Wilson scores. Lawrence Butler to 2nd.1–1
4Pete Alonso homers (8) on a line drive to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
