Athletics at Orioles
Last play · Zack Gelof pops out to shortstop Gunnar Henderson.
Win probability
Orioles100%
ATH 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 1 – 1 BAL
Tied through 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-102 / -118
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dylan Beavers singles on a line drive to left fielder Tyler Soderstrom. Samuel Basallo scores. Leody Taveras to 3rd. (inning 6) — +19% Orioles
6Dylan Beavers singles on a line drive to left fielder Tyler Soderstrom. Samuel Basallo scores. Leody Taveras to 3rd.1–2
3Gunnar Henderson singles on a ground ball to first baseman Nick Kurtz. Dylan Beavers scores. Weston Wilson to 3rd.1–1
2Carlos Cortes out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Taylor Ward. Tyler Soderstrom scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
