Yankees at Orioles
Last play · Orioles challenged (tag play), call on the field was overturned: José Caballero caught stealing 2nd base, catcher Adley Rutschman to second baseman Blaze Alexander.
Win probability
Orioles100%
NYY 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 2 – 0 BAL
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-149 / +124
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Coby Mayo homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Adley Rutschman scores. Tyler O'Neill scores. (inning 7) — +60% Orioles
7Coby Mayo homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Adley Rutschman scores. Tyler O'Neill scores.2–3
3Ben Rice homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field. Trent Grisham scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
