Yankees at Orioles
NYY6–
BAL2Last play · Jeremiah Jackson flies out to right fielder Aaron Judge.
Win probability
Orioles0%
NYY 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 6 – 0 BAL
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-144 / +119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Trent Grisham homers (6) on a line drive to center field. Cody Bellinger scores. Amed Rosario scores. (inning 3) — -13% Yankees
6Tyler O'Neill doubles (1) on a line drive to right fielder Aaron Judge, deflected by center fielder Trent Grisham. Samuel Basallo scores.6–2
6Samuel Basallo singles on a line drive to right fielder Aaron Judge. Taylor Ward scores.6–1
3Trent Grisham homers (6) on a line drive to center field. Cody Bellinger scores. Amed Rosario scores.6–0
3Amed Rosario singles on a ground ball to third baseman Coby Mayo. Aaron Judge scores. Cody Bellinger to 2nd.3–0
3Cody Bellinger grounds into a force out, fielded by shortstop Gunnar Henderson. Austin Wells scores. Aaron Judge to 3rd. Ben Rice out at 2nd. Cody Bellinger to 1st.2–0
1Paul Goldschmidt homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.