Tigers at Orioles
DET4–
BAL7Last play · Gage Workman strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Orioles100%
DET 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 4 – 6 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 9 ↓
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Alonso homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. Jackson Holliday scores. Gunnar Henderson scores. (inning 3) — +35% Orioles
6Pete Alonso out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Riley Greene. Gunnar Henderson scores.4–7
4Jackson Holliday homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Colton Cowser scores.4–6
4Coby Mayo called out on strikes.4–4
4Hao-Yu Lee singles on a ground ball to third baseman Coby Mayo. Spencer Torkelson scores. Zach McKinstry to 2nd.4–3
4Zach McKinstry reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Pete Alonso. Riley Greene scores. Spencer Torkelson to 3rd.3–3
3Pete Alonso homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. Jackson Holliday scores. Gunnar Henderson scores.2–3
3Hao-Yu Lee doubles (3) on a ground ball to left fielder Taylor Ward. Gage Workman scores.2–0
1Kevin McGonigle homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.