Yankees at Orioles
Last play · Cody Bellinger grounds out, second baseman Blaze Alexander to first baseman Pete Alonso.
Win probability
Orioles100%
NYY 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 0 – 5 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 48% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-163 / +135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Adley Rutschman out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Trent Grisham. Blaze Alexander scores. (inning 3) — +12% Orioles
6Blaze Alexander singles on a ground ball to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Tyler O'Neill scores. Coby Mayo scores. Weston Wilson to 2nd.0–7
5Adley Rutschman homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Blaze Alexander scores.0–5
3Pete Alonso singles on a ground ball to right fielder Spencer Jones. Taylor Ward scores. Pete Alonso out at 2nd on the throw, right fielder Spencer Jones to shortstop Anthony Volpe to first baseman Ben Rice.0–3
3Adley Rutschman out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Trent Grisham. Blaze Alexander scores.0–2
2Coby Mayo doubles (4) on a ground ball to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Leody Taveras scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
