Tigers at Orioles
Last play · Blaze Alexander strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Orioles0%
DET 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 4 – 1 BAL
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 50.6% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+106 / -127
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dillon Dingler homers (10) on a fly ball to left field. Kevin McGonigle scores. (inning 1) — -21% Tigers
5Kevin McGonigle singles on a line drive to center fielder Leody Taveras. Spencer Torkelson scores. Wenceel Pérez scores. Zack Short to 3rd.4–1
4Samuel Basallo out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Matt Vierling. Adley Rutschman scores.2–1
1Dillon Dingler homers (10) on a fly ball to left field. Kevin McGonigle scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
