Rays at Orioles
Last play · Colton Cowser homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Blaze Alexander scores.
Win probability
Orioles100%
TB 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 0 – 0 BAL
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-114 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Victor Mesa Jr. homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Cedric Mullins scores. (inning 11) — -61% Rays
13Colton Cowser homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Blaze Alexander scores.7–9
13Jackson Holliday out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Leody Taveras scores. Blaze Alexander to 2nd.7–7
13Leody Taveras doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Jeremiah Jackson scores.7–6
13Nick Fortes out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Leody Taveras. Richie Palacios scores.7–5
13Cedric Mullins singles on a ground ball to left fielder Taylor Ward. Oliver Dunn scores. Richie Palacios to 2nd.6–5
12Orioles challenged (home-plate collision), call on the field was upheld: Orioles challenged (tag play), call on the field was overturned: Gunnar Henderson reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Jonathan Aranda. Colton Cowser scores.5–5
12Jonathan Aranda out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Taylor Ward. Chandler Simpson scores.5–4
11Jeremiah Jackson singles on a ground ball to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Pete Alonso scores. Jeremiah Jackson to 2nd.4–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
