Blue Jays at Orioles
Last play · Pete Alonso singles on a ground ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Taylor Ward scores. Gunnar Henderson to 3rd. Adley Rutschman to 2nd.
Win probability
Orioles100%
TOR 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 2 – 1 BAL
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 49.9% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-131 / +108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Adley Rutschman walks. Colton Cowser scores. Taylor Ward to 3rd. Gunnar Henderson to 2nd. (inning 9) — +42% Orioles
9Pete Alonso singles on a ground ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Taylor Ward scores. Gunnar Henderson to 3rd. Adley Rutschman to 2nd.5–6
9Adley Rutschman walks. Colton Cowser scores. Taylor Ward to 3rd. Gunnar Henderson to 2nd.5–5
9Gunnar Henderson walks. Jackson Holliday scores. Colton Cowser to 3rd. Taylor Ward to 2nd.5–4
9Jackson Holliday singles on a line drive to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Leody Taveras scores.5–3
9Leody Taveras triples (2) on a line drive to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Coby Mayo scores.5–2
9Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doubles (9) on a line drive to right fielder Colton Cowser. Nathan Lukes scores. Fielding error by right fielder Colton Cowser.5–1
8Kazuma Okamoto doubles (7) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Taylor Ward. Nathan Lukes scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores.4–1
4Ernie Clement singles on a line drive to center fielder Leody Taveras. Jesús Sánchez scores.2–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
