Blue Jays at Orioles
Last play · Vladimir Guerrero Jr. grounds out to first baseman Pete Alonso.
Win probability
Orioles100%
TOR 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 0 – 6 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+114 / -137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Alonso singles on a line drive to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Gunnar Henderson scores. Adley Rutschman to 3rd. (inning 3) — +12% Orioles
8Yohendrick Piñango homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Kazuma Okamoto scores. Ernie Clement scores.5–9
8Ernie Clement doubles (19) on a line drive to left fielder Taylor Ward. Nathan Lukes scores. Kazuma Okamoto to 3rd.2–9
7Charles McAdoo grounds into a force out, shortstop Gunnar Henderson to second baseman Jackson Holliday. Ernie Clement scores. Yohendrick Piñango out at 2nd. Charles McAdoo to 1st. Throwing error by second baseman Jackson Holliday.1–9
6Adley Rutschman out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Taylor Ward scores. Gunnar Henderson to 3rd.0–9
6Gunnar Henderson doubles (11) on a line drive to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Blaze Alexander scores. Taylor Ward to 3rd.0–8
6Orioles challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was overturned: Taylor Ward grounds into a force out, fielded by second baseman Ernie Clement. Colton Cowser scores. Blaze Alexander to 3rd. Jackson Holliday out at 2nd. Taylor Ward to 1st.0–7
3Colton Cowser homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Pete Alonso scores. Samuel Basallo scores.0–6
3Samuel Basallo doubles (8) on a ground ball to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Adley Rutschman scores. Pete Alonso to 3rd.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
