Mariners at Orioles
Last play · Mitch Garver strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Orioles100%
SEA 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 0 – 0 BAL
Tied through 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Alonso homers (14) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 6) — +26% Orioles
8Josh Naylor singles on a fly ball to right fielder Leody Taveras. Patrick Wisdom scores.2–7
8Julio Rodríguez grounds out, second baseman Jackson Holliday to first baseman Pete Alonso. Miles Mastrobuoni scores. Patrick Wisdom to 3rd.1–7
7Jackson Holliday hits a grand slam (3) to right center field. Taylor Ward scores. Pete Alonso scores. Leody Taveras scores.0–7
6Blaze Alexander hits a ground-rule double (9) on a fly ball to right-center field. Leody Taveras scores.0–3
6Leody Taveras doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Colton Cowser scores.0–2
6Pete Alonso homers (14) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
