Mariners at Orioles
Last play · Tyler O'Neill strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Orioles0%
SEA 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 3 – 1 BAL
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / -101
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Randy Arozarena homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Julio Rodríguez scores. (inning 10) — -46% Mariners
10Leody Taveras singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Dominic Canzone. Pete Alonso scores. Blaze Alexander to 3rd.6–5
10Randy Arozarena homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Julio Rodríguez scores.6–4
9Samuel Basallo reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by pitcher José A. Ferrer. Jeremiah Jackson scores. Tyler O'Neill to 3rd.4–4
9Coby Mayo homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field.4–3
7Samuel Basallo challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Samuel Basallo called out on strikes.4–2
7Randy Arozarena singles on a line drive to left fielder Colton Cowser. Victor Robles scores. Julio Rodríguez to 2nd.4–1
4Mitch Garver homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Randy Arozarena scores. Rob Refsnyder scores.3–1
1Leody Taveras out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Taylor Ward scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
