Mariners at Orioles
Last play · Colton Cowser strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Orioles0%
SEA 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 5 – 1 BAL
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Josh Naylor hits a grand slam (7) to right field. Jhonny Pereda scores. Cole Young scores. Julio Rodríguez scores. (inning 5) — -44% Mariners
8Blaze Alexander singles on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Leody Taveras scores. Jackson Holliday to 3rd.6–3
8Randy Arozarena singles on a ground ball to right fielder Leody Taveras. Josh Naylor scores.6–2
7Taylor Ward hit by pitch.5–2
5Josh Naylor hits a grand slam (7) to right field. Jhonny Pereda scores. Cole Young scores. Julio Rodríguez scores.5–1
5Ryan Bliss out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Colton Cowser. Dominic Canzone scores.1–1
3Pete Alonso out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Blaze Alexander scores. Taylor Ward to 3rd. Gunnar Henderson to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
