Padres at Orioles
SD9–
BAL3Last play · Pete Alonso grounds out, second baseman Fernando Tatis Jr. to first baseman Gavin Sheets.
Win probability
Orioles0%
SD 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 6 – 2 BAL
Padres led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 10 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jackson Merrill homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. (inning 1) — -21% Padres
9Manny Machado homers (12) on a fly ball to center field.9–3
8Rodolfo Durán homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.8–3
7Pete Alonso doubles (13) on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Samad Taylor. Gunnar Henderson scores.7–3
7Gavin Sheets homers (11) on a fly ball to right field.7–2
5Nick Solak out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Xander Bogaerts scores.6–2
5Samad Taylor singles on a fly ball to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Manny Machado scores. Xander Bogaerts to 3rd. Gavin Sheets to 2nd.5–2
1Leody Taveras triples (3) on a line drive to right fielder Jase Bowen. Samuel Basallo scores.4–2
1Pete Alonso homers (16) on a fly ball to right center field.4–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.