Mariners at Orioles
Last play · Randy Arozarena grounds out, shortstop Gunnar Henderson to first baseman Pete Alonso.
Win probability
Orioles100%
SEA 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 5 – 7 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 52% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-114 / -106
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Adley Rutschman doubles (15) on a line drive to right fielder Luke Raley. Taylor Ward scores. Gunnar Henderson scores. (inning 3) — +27% Orioles
5Adley Rutschman singles on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Taylor Ward scores.5–7
4Julio Rodríguez singles on a line drive to right fielder Leody Taveras. Colt Emerson scores. Cole Young to 2nd.5–6
4Dominic Canzone homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field.4–6
4Luke Raley homers (14) on a fly ball to right field. Randy Arozarena scores.3–6
3Pete Alonso homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field. Adley Rutschman scores.1–6
3Adley Rutschman doubles (15) on a line drive to right fielder Luke Raley. Taylor Ward scores. Gunnar Henderson scores.1–4
3Colton Cowser homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.1–1
1Cole Young homers (5) on a line drive to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
