Nationals at Orioles
Last play · Samuel Basallo grounds out, second baseman Nasim Nuñez to first baseman Luis García Jr.
Win probability
Orioles0%
WSH 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 2 – 1 BAL
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 49.4% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-101 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Samuel Basallo singles on a ground ball to right fielder Dylan Crews. Pete Alonso scores. (inning 8) — +32% Orioles
10Daylen Lile singles on a ground ball to right fielder Leody Taveras. Dylan Crews scores.4–3
8Samuel Basallo singles on a ground ball to right fielder Dylan Crews. Pete Alonso scores.3–3
8Pete Alonso doubles (15) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Daylen Lile. Chadwick Tromp scores.3–2
6Drew Millas singles on a ground ball to left fielder Taylor Ward. Jorbit Vivas scores.3–1
5Luis García Jr. homers (14) on a fly ball to right field.2–1
2Chadwick Tromp singles on a line drive to right fielder James Wood. Jeremiah Jackson scores.1–1
2Jorbit Vivas singles on a ground ball to left fielder Taylor Ward. Daylen Lile scores. Jorbit Vivas to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
