Nationals at Orioles
Last play · Dylan Crews grounds out, shortstop Gunnar Henderson to first baseman Pete Alonso.
Win probability
Orioles100%
WSH 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 1 – 2 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+118 / -143
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Blaze Alexander singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Dylan Crews. Coby Mayo scores. Tyler O'Neill scores. Jackson Holliday to 2nd. (inning 4) — +22% Orioles
7Coby Mayo doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to left fielder José Tena. Taylor Ward scores. Pete Alonso to 3rd.1–3
5Keibert Ruiz singles on a line drive to center fielder Leody Taveras. Jacob Young scores.1–2
4Blaze Alexander singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Dylan Crews. Coby Mayo scores. Tyler O'Neill scores. Jackson Holliday to 2nd.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
