Padres at Orioles
Last play · Taylor Ward lines out to right fielder Jase Bowen.
Win probability
Orioles0%
SD 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 2 – 1 BAL
Padres led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 48.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+114 / -137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Rodolfo Durán homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Will Wagner scores. (inning 7) — -22% Padres
9Padres challenged (tag play), call on the field was overturned: Fernando Tatis Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Blaze Alexander. Will Wagner scores.5–2
7Gunnar Henderson singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jase Bowen. Blaze Alexander scores.4–2
7Rodolfo Durán homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Will Wagner scores.4–1
5Jeremiah Jackson homers (7) on a fly ball to right field.2–1
2Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a ground ball to center fielder Colton Cowser. Rodolfo Durán scores.2–0
2Rodolfo Durán doubles (2) on a ground ball to center fielder Colton Cowser. Samad Taylor scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
