Nationals at Orioles
Last play · Leody Taveras grounds into a double play, second baseman Nasim Nuñez to shortstop CJ Abrams to first baseman Luis García Jr. Coby Mayo out at 2nd. Leody Taveras out at 1st.
Win probability
Orioles0%
WSH 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 5 – 2 BAL
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+168 / -205
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis García Jr. doubles (14) on a line drive to center fielder Colton Cowser. Keibert Ruiz scores. James Wood scores. (inning 3) — -23% Nationals
7Jackson Holliday homers (5) on a line drive to right center field. Colton Cowser scores.6–4
7Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was overturned: Luis García Jr. homers (16) on a line drive to right center field.6–2
5Luis García Jr. homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field. James Wood scores.5–2
3Curtis Mead reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Coby Mayo. Luis García Jr. scores. Curtis Mead to 2nd.3–2
3Luis García Jr. doubles (14) on a line drive to center fielder Colton Cowser. Keibert Ruiz scores. James Wood scores.2–2
1Pete Alonso homers (19) on a fly ball to center field. Adley Rutschman scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
