White Sox at Orioles
Last play · Braden Montgomery grounds out, shortstop Gunnar Henderson to first baseman Samuel Basallo.
Win probability
Orioles100%
CWS 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCWS 1 – 4 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 10
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+129 / -156
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%White Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyler O'Neill homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 5) — +22% Orioles
8Leody Taveras homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.1–6
6Blaze Alexander triples (2) on a line drive to right fielder Braden Montgomery. Leody Taveras scores.1–5
5Pete Alonso walks.1–4
5Taylor Ward out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Braden Montgomery. Blaze Alexander scores. Gunnar Henderson to 3rd.1–3
5Adley Rutschman singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Sam Antonacci. Jackson Holliday scores. Blaze Alexander to 3rd. Gunnar Henderson to 2nd.1–2
5Tyler O'Neill homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.1–1
1Sam Antonacci homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
