Royals at Orioles
Last play · Josh Rojas strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Orioles100%
KC 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 2 – 3 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 10 ↑
fair over 48.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+124 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Samuel Basallo homers (15) on a fly ball to right field. Pete Alonso scores. (inning 8) — +34% Orioles
8Samuel Basallo homers (15) on a fly ball to right field. Pete Alonso scores.3–5
8Isaac Collins homers (5) on a fly ball to center field.3–3
4Blaze Alexander homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field.2–3
4Josh Rojas doubles (2) on a fly ball to left fielder Taylor Ward. Michael Massey scores.2–2
4Jac Caglianone homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field.1–2
2Gunnar Henderson singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Lane Thomas. Blaze Alexander scores. Jackson Holliday to 3rd.0–2
2Jackson Holliday singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Dylan Beavers scores. Blaze Alexander to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
