Cubs at Orioles
Last play · Michael Conforto lines out to left fielder Taylor Ward.
Win probability
Orioles100%
CHC 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 0 – 1 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+108 / -130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cubs challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Jeremiah Jackson doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Gunnar Henderson scores. Pete Alonso scores. (inning 8) — +61% Orioles
8Cubs challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Jeremiah Jackson doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Gunnar Henderson scores. Pete Alonso scores.2–3
8Seiya Suzuki doubles (13) on a ground ball to left fielder Taylor Ward. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.2–1
6Seiya Suzuki homers (15) on a fly ball to left field.1–1
2Tyler O'Neill homers (6) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
