Royals at Orioles
Last play · Bobby Witt Jr. grounds out, shortstop Gunnar Henderson to first baseman Pete Alonso.
Win probability
Orioles100%
KC 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 2 – 2 BAL
Tied through 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+129 / -156
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Leody Taveras homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. Blaze Alexander scores. (inning 2) — +25% Orioles
7Samuel Basallo homers (16) on a line drive to center field.2–8
6Pete Alonso singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Gunnar Henderson scores. Pete Alonso out at 2nd on the throw, right fielder Jac Caglianone to shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. Taylor Ward to 3rd.2–7
6Gunnar Henderson singles on a ground ball to pitcher Matt Strahm. Jeremiah Jackson scores.2–6
6Jeremiah Jackson hits a ground-rule double (10) on a fly ball to right-center field. Tyler O'Neill scores. Leody Taveras to 3rd.2–4
6Leody Taveras singles on a ground ball to center fielder Lane Thomas. Blaze Alexander scores. Tyler O'Neill to 3rd.2–3
3Lane Thomas singles on a ground ball to left fielder Dylan Beavers. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.2–2
2Leody Taveras homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. Blaze Alexander scores.1–2
2Isaac Collins triples (1) on a ground ball to right fielder Leody Taveras. Josh Rojas scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
