Royals at Orioles
Last play · Vinnie Pasquantino pops out to shortstop Gunnar Henderson.
Win probability
Orioles100%
KC 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 0 – 4 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 48.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -163
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Alonso homers (21) on a fly ball to center field. Taylor Ward scores. (inning 4) — +17% Orioles
8Gunnar Henderson homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field.1–6
7Salvador Perez out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Leody Taveras. Jac Caglianone scores.1–5
6Taylor Ward homers (6) on a fly ball to right field.0–5
5Coby Mayo homers (12) on a fly ball to left field.0–4
4Pete Alonso homers (21) on a fly ball to center field. Taylor Ward scores.0–3
2Samuel Basallo singles on a line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Pete Alonso scores. Samuel Basallo out at 2nd on the throw, right fielder Jac Caglianone to shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
