Braves at Orioles
Last play · Sam Huff strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Orioles0%
ATL 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 2 – 3 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 52.1% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+107 / -129
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christian Encarnacion-Strand homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Tyler O'Neill scores. (inning 10) — +29% Orioles
10Christian Encarnacion-Strand homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Tyler O'Neill scores.7–6
10Jeremiah Jackson out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. Taylor Ward scores.7–4
10Matt Olson homers (27) on a fly ball to right center field. Joey Bart scores. Jim Jarvis scores.7–3
10Jim Jarvis reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by second baseman Jackson Holliday. Brewer Hicklen scores. Joey Bart to 3rd. Jim Jarvis to 2nd. Throwing error by second baseman Jackson Holliday.4–3
8Drake Baldwin homers (20) on a fly ball to right center field.3–3
4Jackson Holliday out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Eli White. Taylor Ward scores.2–3
4Austin Riley singles on a ground ball to center fielder Colton Cowser. Michael Harris II scores.2–2
4Mauricio Dubón out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Colton Cowser. Ozzie Albies scores.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
