Braves at Orioles
Last play · Dylan Beavers singles on a ground ball to right fielder Brewer Hicklen. Jackson Holliday scores.
Win probability
Orioles100%
ATL 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 0 – 2 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-103 / -117
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ozzie Albies homers (17) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 8) — -28% Braves
9Dylan Beavers singles on a ground ball to right fielder Brewer Hicklen. Jackson Holliday scores.2–3
8Ozzie Albies homers (17) on a fly ball to right field.2–2
6Mauricio Dubón grounds out, shortstop Gunnar Henderson to first baseman Pete Alonso. Matt Olson scores. Michael Harris II to 3rd.1–2
5Gunnar Henderson homers (18) on a fly ball to right center field.0–2
3Christian Encarnacion-Strand singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Mauricio Dubón, deflected by shortstop Jim Jarvis. Pete Alonso scores. Taylor Ward to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
