Braves at Orioles
Last play · Sam Huff grounds out, third baseman Austin Riley to first baseman Matt Olson.
Win probability
Orioles0%
ATL 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 2 – 0 BAL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 47.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-114 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Austin Riley doubles (14) on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Jorge Mateo scores. (inning 11) — -44% Braves
11Austin Riley doubles (14) on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Jorge Mateo scores.3–2
9Jackson Holliday grounds out, second baseman Ozzie Albies to first baseman Matt Olson. Coby Mayo scores. Leody Taveras to 2nd.2–2
8Pete Alonso homers (22) on a fly ball to left field.2–1
4Dominic Smith singles on a line drive to left fielder Dylan Beavers. Matt Olson scores.2–0
2Dominic Smith singles on a ground ball to left fielder Dylan Beavers. Michael Harris II scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
