Phillies at Orioles
Last play · Jackson Holliday flies out to right fielder Derek Hill.
Win probability
Orioles0%
PHI 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 1 – 0 BAL
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-154 / +127
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryan De La Cruz singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Leody Taveras. Bryson Stott scores. (inning 5) — -16% Phillies
8Justin Crawford singles on a ground ball to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Brandon Marsh scores. J.T. Realmuto scores. Bryson Stott to 3rd.5–0
8Brandon Marsh singles on a line drive to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Bryce Harper scores. Alec Bohm to 2nd.3–0
8Alec Bohm singles on a ground ball to left fielder Taylor Ward. Kyle Schwarber scores. Bryce Harper to 3rd.2–0
5Bryan De La Cruz singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Leody Taveras. Bryson Stott scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
