Phillies at Orioles
PHI8–
BAL0Last play · Status Change - Delayed: Rain
Win probability
Orioles0%
PHI 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 5 – 0 BAL
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-150 / +124
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryan De La Cruz homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. Justin Crawford scores. (inning 3) — -26% Phillies
6Kyle Schwarber out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Dylan Beavers. Justin Crawford scores.8–0
6Bryan De La Cruz out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Colton Cowser. Bryson Stott scores.7–0
6Justin Crawford singles on a line drive to left fielder Dylan Beavers. J.T. Realmuto scores. Bryson Stott to 3rd. Justin Crawford to 2nd.6–0
5Bryce Harper homers (23) on a fly ball to right center field.5–0
4Justin Crawford grounds out, second baseman Jackson Holliday to first baseman Pete Alonso. Brandon Marsh scores. J.T. Realmuto to 3rd. Bryson Stott to 2nd.4–0
4Bryson Stott walks. Alec Bohm scores. Brandon Marsh to 3rd. J.T. Realmuto to 2nd.3–0
3Bryan De La Cruz homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. Justin Crawford scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.