Angels at Orioles
Last play · Vaughn Grissom flies out to right fielder Leody Taveras.
Win probability
Orioles100%
LAA 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAA 0 – 3 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+126 / -134
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Angels favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyler O'Neill homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Gunnar Henderson scores. (inning 4) — +22% Orioles
8Leody Taveras homers (6) on a line drive to right center field. Gunnar Henderson scores.2–5
7Wade Meckler singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jeremiah Jackson. Nolan Schanuel scores.2–3
6Jose Siri homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.1–3
4Coby Mayo homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field.0–3
4Tyler O'Neill homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Gunnar Henderson scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
