Angels at Orioles
Last play · Zach Neto strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Orioles100%
LAA 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAA 0 – 2 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+134 / -142
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Angels favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Alonso singles on a line drive to center fielder Mike Trout. Christian Franklin scores. Colton Cowser scores. Carlos Narváez to 2nd. (inning 3) — +23% Orioles
8Tyler O'Neill homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field.1–3
8Vaughn Grissom reaches on a fielding error by third baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Nolan Schanuel scores. Vaughn Grissom to 2nd.1–2
3Pete Alonso singles on a line drive to center fielder Mike Trout. Christian Franklin scores. Colton Cowser scores. Carlos Narváez to 2nd.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
