Angels at Orioles
Last play · Coby Mayo called out on strikes.
Win probability
Orioles0%
LAA 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAA 3 – 1 BAL
Angels led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+169 / -182
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Angels favored ↓
Biggest swing · Zach Neto homers (20) on a fly ball to center field. Wade Meckler scores. Nolan Schanuel scores. (inning 3) — -35% Angels
7Nolan Schanuel out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Leody Taveras. Wade Meckler scores. Mike Trout to 3rd.4–1
3Yohel Pozo homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.3–1
3Zach Neto homers (20) on a fly ball to center field. Wade Meckler scores. Nolan Schanuel scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
