Yankees at Orioles
Last play · Yohel Pozo grounds out, second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. to first baseman Luis García Jr.
Win probability
Orioles0%
NYY 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 1 – 1 BAL
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-106 / -101
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Trent Grisham singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Leody Taveras. Spencer Jones scores. George Lombard Jr. scores. José Caballero to 3rd. (inning 7) — -31% Yankees
7Trent Grisham singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Leody Taveras. Spencer Jones scores. George Lombard Jr. scores. José Caballero to 3rd.3–1
3Coby Mayo homers (17) on a fly ball to left field.1–1
3Trent Grisham homers (17) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
