Yankees at Orioles
Last play · Christian Encarnacion-Strand strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Orioles0%
NYY 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 3 – 1 BAL
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 47.9% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / +102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis García Jr. homers (25) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 6) — -17% Yankees
8Jazz Chisholm Jr. triples (3) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Leody Taveras. Luis García Jr. scores.6–1
6Spencer Jones homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.5–1
6Luis García Jr. homers (25) on a fly ball to right center field.4–1
5Dylan Beavers homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.3–1
3Heliot Ramos doubles (17) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Colton Cowser. Ben Rice scores.3–0
3Ben Rice singles on a line drive to left fielder Dylan Beavers. Austin Wells scores.2–0
3José Caballero reaches on a fielder's choice. Spencer Jones scores. Austin Wells to 2nd. Missed catch error by shortstop Gunnar Henderson, assist to second baseman Jackson Holliday.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
