Yankees at Orioles
Last play · Jackson Holliday flies out to left fielder Heliot Ramos.
Win probability
Orioles0%
NYY 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 3 – 2 BAL
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · George Lombard Jr. singles on a ground ball to third baseman Coby Mayo. Heliot Ramos scores. Jazz Chisholm Jr. to 3rd. José Caballero to 2nd. (inning 8) — -26% Yankees
8Austin Wells lines out to left fielder Dylan Beavers.5–3
8George Lombard Jr. singles on a ground ball to third baseman Coby Mayo. Heliot Ramos scores. Jazz Chisholm Jr. to 3rd. José Caballero to 2nd.4–3
6Dylan Beavers homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field.3–3
3Pete Alonso homers (29) on a fly ball to right center field.3–2
3Ben Rice homers (34) on a fly ball to right center field.3–1
2George Lombard Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Leody Taveras. Spencer Jones scores.2–1
2Ryan McMahon singles on a line drive to right fielder Leody Taveras. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores. Ryan McMahon out at 2nd on the throw, right fielder Leody Taveras to shortstop Gunnar Henderson. Spencer Jones to 3rd.1–1
1Coby Mayo called out on strikes.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
