Rays at Orioles
Last play · Gunnar Henderson grounds out, second baseman Richie Palacios to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
Win probability
Orioles0%
TB 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 0 – 0 BAL
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.6% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+101 / -108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Junior Caminero singles on a ground ball to center fielder Colton Cowser. Jonathan Aranda scores. Junior Caminero to 2nd. (inning 6) — -29% Rays
9Colton Cowser homers (12) on a fly ball to right field.3–1
6Chandler Simpson singles on a ground ball to center fielder Colton Cowser. Junior Caminero scores. Liam Hicks to 2nd.3–0
6Junior Caminero singles on a ground ball to center fielder Colton Cowser. Jonathan Aranda scores. Junior Caminero to 2nd.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
