Rays at Orioles
Last play · Dylan Beavers doubles (13) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Leody Taveras scores.
Win probability
Orioles100%
TB 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 1 – 0 BAL
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-124 / +116
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Samuel Basallo homers (17) on a fly ball to center field. Jackson Holliday scores. (inning 8) — +45% Orioles
10Dylan Beavers doubles (13) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Leody Taveras scores.2–3
8Samuel Basallo homers (17) on a fly ball to center field. Jackson Holliday scores.2–2
6Junior Caminero singles on a ground ball to center fielder Leody Taveras. Yandy Díaz scores. Chandler Simpson to 2nd.2–0
2Liam Hicks homers (17) on a line drive to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
