Red Sox at Orioles
Last play · Christian Encarnacion-Strand lines out to shortstop Trevor Story.
Win probability
Orioles0%
BOS 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 1 – 0 BAL
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-118 / -102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Eli White strikes out swinging. (inning 9) — -14% Red Sox
1Mickey Gasper homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
